Day 4: Busts

This is the final day of busts with one of them being a former 1st round pick in fantasy drafts, one a veteran on the outs, and another being a quarterback who could very well lose his job.     

David Garrard – QB (Jaguars) – Garrard put up his best statistical year in ’09 and was in the top 15 of quarterbacks in fantasy points. The downfall of Garrard last season was the fact that he fumbled 14 times (8 lost). Garrard is one of these mobile quarterbacks who need to make plays with his feet, and if he doesn’t, will find himself out of his comfort zone. Many “experts” may say that Garrard will improve this year with his offensive line finally being healthy again, but he got sacked the same amount of times as he did in ’08 (42 times), and a player with his agility should have been able to buy time to make the big play. He’ll do most of his work by handing off the ball to Maurice Jones-Drew who has shown that he is very durable despite his small frame and by using his own legs on plays drawn up for him to run. The pressure of his big contract may have started to get to him last season and will continue on into this one. Don’t be surprised if Garrard doesn’t end the season with the starting job as Luke McCown may be able to manage a game when given the opportunity. Garrard is not an attractive option, avoid him.

Marion Barber – RB (Cowboys) – After bulldozing over opposing defenses for the last 5 years, Barber has respectfully earned the title “The Barbarian”. Unfortunately, enforcing this bruising run style on his opponents has made me come to the realization that his glory days are behind him. Barber has fought through injuries, most recently his quadriceps muscle, for the last two years. He’s also been rumored to have “lost a step” during the offseason. Coach Phillips doesn’t seem to think so, but I’m pretty sure he loves everybody. This has opened opportunities for young running backs Felix Jones and Tashard Choice to show what they have to offer, and they haven’t disappointed thus far. Felix Jones’s breakaway speed out of the backfield as well as Choice’s all around talent continues to show why the Cowboys may keep Barber off the field more this year to make sure he’s healthy for the playoffs. The fact that Tony Romo is coming off his best statistical season and has more weapons this year than ever before tells me all the running backs may be seeing less opportunities with the ball(similar to what the Saints like to do). Feel free to draft barber as a solid 3rd RB, but his #2 running back duties on your fantasy team have come to an end.

Donald Driver – WR (Packers) – Driver surprised a lot of fantasy gurus last year as he turned into Aaron Rodgers go-to-receiver. While catching 70 balls for 1061 yards and 6 touchdowns was impressive, there’s reason to believe that Donald will slow down considerably. After having arthroscopic surgery on both knees this offseason, Driver definitely will slow down. He’s capable of being questionable, or in fact missing a lot games due to soreness and tendinitis. James Jones and Jordy Nelson are up and coming young receivers with a bunch of talent and are ready to both produce career highs this year. This goes without saying, but they also have Greg Jennings in the mix, who ended up having a strong finish to his season as well. What held them back last year was the Packer offensive line being dreadful causing Rodgers to throw short passes and screens to Driver on almost every series. Green Bay made it a necessity to solidify the right and left tackle position by resigning Tauscher and drafting in the first round Bryan Bulaga (not to be confused with the whale). In 2010, expect even more big plays out of the Packer offense with receivers Jennings, Jones, and Nelson being the benefactors, while leaving Driver looking into retirement plans.

With busts over, be ready for an offseason basketball article and why curling isn't a sport to come shortly after. GONE.

Day 3: Busts

Here’s Day 3 of our busts for the upcoming NFL season. We have another running back, a young tight end, and the first overall pick of this year’s draft. Enjoy.

Greg Olsen – TE (Bears) – With new offensive coordinator Mike Martz in town, the Bears total offense might have high hopes, but not so much for Martz TE's. Any place Martz has had his hands on the offensive play calling; TE's have not had very much success. The best numbers came from Ernie Conwell in ‘01 with the Rams when he had 431 yards and 4 TD's. Now in 99 the year the Rams won the super bowl and displayed the “greatest show on turf” Roland Williams did have 6 TD's from the TE position, but only 226 yards receiving. Greg Olsen is coming off his best season of his so far short career with 612 yards and 8TD's with 3 of those TD's coming in a losing effort to the Cards. Another thing playing against Olsen is the fact that Cutler has never really been a throw to my TE kind of guy. No Cutler TE has ever had 700 yards receiving in a season, as Olsen’s season last year displayed the best numbers for a tight end Cutler has been able to throw to. Look for this ugly pairing of Mike Martz with the Chicago offense to hinder the success of Olsen.

Steve Slaton – RB (Texans) – Some think Slaton may have just experienced the sophomore slump... NOT ME. I think he was a rookie one season wonder and is someone who you shouldn’t have high hopes for this upcoming season. Slaton showed us his ability to put the ball on the ground last season with a total of 7 fumbles with 5 of those lost. Slaton’s chances didn’t get any better when the Texans moved up in the 2nd round of last year’s draft (after they moved back) to land running back Ben Tate. Tate’s running style fits the Texans scheme very well and this should push Slaton to a 3rd down back or in passing situations only. As if this wasn’t enough to not like Slaton for this upcoming season, he is also coming off of off-season neck surgery. He will be eased in at camp, but it looks like Ben Tate will be the guy to have at running back in Houston.

Sam Bradford – QB (Rams) – The Rams and Sam Bradford still haven’t come to an agreement on a contract, but are close. When Sam Bradford is ready to report to training camp, he will have the weight of an entire franchise on his shoulders. He lacks the wide receiving talent to make an immediate impact on the league and may find himself handing the ball off to Steven Jackson often, at least at the beginning of the season. His offensive line is towards the bottom of the league allowing 44 sacks in the 2009 season. This won’t be the same guy who constantly ran a no-huddle in Oklahoma and put up inflated numbers against the rest of the Big 12. In Oklahoma, he had the great offensive line, a great tight end, and all the weapons to put himself in a position to be great. Can he be great all on his own? Make sure you keep Bradford’s shoulder injury in the back of your mind too. He may be healthy now, but it could creep into his own mind when he falls awkward like he did when he first experienced the injury.

Day 4 will bring 3 more guys you don’t want.

Day 2: Busts

Here's Day 2 of our NFL Busts. Cross these names off of your cheat sheets, NOW!

Marshawn Lynch – RB (Bills) – Here’s a big name running back to stay away from. Lynch has shown he’s got all the talent in the world, but still lacks the maturity to ever keep himself on the field. Now Lynch is 3rd on the depth chart behind Fred Jackson and first round pick C.J. Spiller. The Bills want Spiller on the field for his electrifying speed and BIG play ability. They took Spiller 9th overall in the draft, so he definitely won’t be warming the bench. After Fred Jackson showed he’s more than capable of producing at a high level, he’ll be getting most of 1st and 2nd down carries while Spiller spells him and takes all the 3rd down responsibilities, leaving Lynch on the outside looking in. I would recommend drafting Lynch late, EXTREMELY late, if he drops to you, considering there’s a possibility he could get traded near the beginning of the season to a team that lacks depth at RB position. If that’s the case, he could instantly turn into a starter somewhere, but drafting him any higher than your 4th RB would be disastrous for your fantasy team. Marshawn might think he’s in “beast mode” when on the field, but when off, he’s useless to your fantasy team. Go elsewhere.

 

Braylon Edwards – WR (Jets) – Braylon’s career is going down faster than a blind guy playing dodge ball with Roger Clemens. Where both are going to hit the ground, Edwards might find it harder to get back up. Since his 1289 yards and 16 TD's in ’07, Edwards has continued to regress in the stats department. He came just shy of 900 yards and only 3TD's in the ’08 season followed by 680 yards and 4 TD’s in his ‘09 season with the Browns and Jets. Edwards may find it even harder to see passes this season with the Jets bringing in deep threat Santonio Holmes. Not only did the WR core get more crowded in NY, but the running game seems to have gotten better as well, meaning more ground game and less pass game. LT and Greene look to keep the ball in their hands because everytime it gets thrown Edwards’ way he finds a way to drop a pass. With Sanchez’s play being very up and down last season, nobody knows what exactly he’ll bring to the table and he might be one of the many who experience the dreaded sophomore slump. With a not-so-great rookie season, who knows how bad that slump could end up being? This is the same QB who only had one season of work on his resume at USC, and still that didn’t stop the J! E! T! S! Jets Jets Jets from moving up to draft him 5th overall in the 2009 NFL draft. This season may finally be the straw that breaks Braylon’s back.

Any RB on the ‘Skins – The so-called three-headed monster the Redskins have put together in Washington are all on the downside of their careers. Willie Parker has been fragile in recent years, Portis doesn’t know whether he wants to show up to camp in playing shape or not, and Larry Johnson’s attitude put him in a position where he was just looking for an opportunity to play anywhere he was given the chance. Not to mention the Redskins have been linked with Brian Westbrook as a possible destination for the former stud running back. Mike Shanahan has been the mastermind behind creating running backs out of nowhere and is reunited with Portis, who he drafted in 2002 with the Denver Broncos. I think Portis comes out of camp with the starting job, but with Larry Johnson and Willie Parker all waiting on the bench, a lot of spelling will take place and Shanahan may just go with the hot hand for the bulk of the carries in any particular game. Don’t forget about McNabb either, as he will want to throw the deep ball in any situation. I guess a lot depends on what type of offense Shanahan wants to run, but either way, there are too many options to choose from with this wide open committee. It’s simple, avoid ALL ‘Skins RB’s.

Day 3 comes tomorrow with 3 more BUSTS.

Day 1: Busts

To keep your fantasy team strong, you must not only get great value out of the “players on the rise” type guys, but at the same time, you have to avoid players that will destroy your team. We call these team killers, BUSTS. The next 4 days we’ll focus on these busts; who they are, and why they won’t meet expectations. Here we go:

Jay Cutler – QB (Bears) – Jay Cutler cried his way out of Denver and found himself with a top-tier running back and a solid defense in Chicago. He gave hope to the fans of Chicago, thinking they finally had the quarterback capable of bringing a Super Bowl back to the Windy City. All he did was lead the league in interceptions with 26 (just one TD more than INT), something the Bears didn’t see coming. The Devin Hester experience didn’t turn out as well as the Bears had hoped either. Cutler comes into this season with the same unknown wide receivers (Aroshmadu, career stats: 400 yds, 4 TD's) he had last year paired with a demanding offensive coordinator in Mike Martz. Martz’s “high-octane” offense has always been complicated and turns Cutler’s only reliable option in Greg Olsen to a block-first tight end. Does Jay Cutler have the patience? He certainly didn’t give Josh McDaniels a chance in Denver. The stubborn quarterback will continue to disappoint in 2010, avoid him at all costs.

Cedric Benson – RB (Bengals) – Before last season, Benson had never rushed for more than 800 yards in a single season (the most he ever had was 747yds) and he has never had double digit TD's (the most ever was 6 in ‘09 and ‘07). There is no reason to go crazy over him this season. Yes, he is coming off the best season of his career, but that has a lot to do with the fact that the Bengals had to rely on a heavy running attack and nobody expected that to happen. Every week they were just waiting for “Calmer” to become the Carson Palmer we all knew, airing it out all over the field. The Bengals have added wideout Antonio Bryant and future HOF wide receiver Terrell Owens. Add that to #85 and you have a triple-headed passing attack that not many teams will be able to handle. The Bengals are going to have their hands full trying to spread the ball out between the divas at WR. Who knows if Benson is going to be able to get enough carries to reach his numbers? On a side note, Benson has already shown that he has had problems playing a full season and he is coming off the most carries he has ever had in a single season. Stay away from Mr. Benson.

Mike Sims-Walker – WR (Jaguars) – Sims-Walker definitely lived up to the hype last year gaining 869yards and 7 touchdowns, but there’s cause for concern for him entering the 2010 season. It’s hard to love Sims-Walker after only one productive season. Walker has never been the healthiest of players over the years, consistently battling knee injuries throughout his rookie and sophomore years with the Jags, and even last year playing through most of the season with an ankle injury. Walker has Jones-Drew to take SOME pressure off him, but is virtually all alone as their only consistent pass catcher. Defenses will be ready for Walker this year and will plan to blanket him every game, which could frustrate David Garrard (whose performance has plummeted each of the last three years). Don’t count on Walker taking major steps to develop into a #1 fantasy receiver this year, which some project him to be.

 

 

Day 2 will bring us 3 more busts you may want to avoid in your fantasy draft, well... if you want to win.

Players on the Rise

This coming football season, like any other, is bound to bring us some surprises (Pierre Garcon) and complete disappointments (thanks Brandon Jacobs). A key to winning your fantasy league relies on hitting on some of these small surprises. Below is some insight on a few players that you can count on to RISE to the occasion.

Kevin Kolb – QB (Eagles) – Kolb is finally being handed the reigns as a full time starting QB with McNabb out of the equation. While filling in for McNabb last season, Kolb played well and gave the Eagles a reason to solidify him as the starting QB of the future. Kolb has inherited an offense with big strike ability; any short pass can go the distance when you have DeSean Jackson on your side, not to mention the down field threat he can be as well. He will also have an emerging star in TE Brent Celek at his disposal and a very good under the radar number 2 WR in Jeremy Maclin. The Eagles no longer have the luxury of Brian Westbrook coming out of the backfield for a quick check down, but LeSean McCoy should be able to more then hold his own. If the O-line can keep Kolb standing, he’s worthy of a top-10 QB selection in the 5th round.

Jimmy Clausen – QB (Panthers) – Clausen is coming into this season with a chip on his shoulder because of how his stock plummeted on draft day. Jimmy has a lot of critics to show up, no one more than the self-proclaimed draft guru, Todd McShay. Jimmy’s late draft slot may be a blessing in disguise as he has found himself with a team with a ton of upside and a GREAT running game to take off some of the pressure. Having a dynamic WR in Steve Smith doesn’t hurt either and is someone who can carry a team in the passing game and help Clausen’s overall stock that much more. Right now Clausen is listed as the number 2 QB in Carolina, but don’t let that fool you. Clausen’s experience in a pro style offense in college will help him nail down the starting job for the start of the season. Clausen possesses a big arm and all the weapons around him. Look for Clausen to go later than the 10th round, a great value pick for someone who might just be that sleeper that carries your team to the playoffs.

Rashard Mendenhall – RB (Steelers) – Going into his second full season in the league, Mendenhall looks to continue his late ‘09 success. Mendenhall will enter this season as THE MAN in Pittsburgh and is one of the few remaining running backs carrying a full load. With big Ben having to serve a 4-game suspension, look for the power back to register 30 carries a game. Nonetheless, when Ben returns, Pittsburgh may have no choice but to continue relying on the running game as they have in the past for so much of their success. Mendenhall could post numbers of a top-5 back this season. The one downside to Mendenhall is something he has no control of; he plays in a division full of stout run defenses. I see Mendenhall being a mid 1st round to very early 2nd round pick. He is a steal if he is sitting there any later than that.

Felix Jones – RB (Cowboys) - There are few players in fantasy football with more BOOM or bust potential this year, but I can’t help but feel with all the weapons on this team it has to be BOOM for Felix Jones! There are multiple reports from Dallas camp that Marion Barber has lost a step due to his physical and punishing running style. Barber may find his way in many goal line situations, but Jones, who averaged 5.9 yards an attempt on only 116 carries last year, will finally be getting the bulk of the carries, all of this coming from the man himself, Jerry Jones. Felix may never be the type of RB that can carry the ball 30 attempts a game, but who really can anymore? Jones is on that short list of running backs that has the ability to take it to the house every time they touch the ball. His ability to catch the ball out of the backfield is also strong so it’s hard to see him ever getting off the field on third downs. His injury history has been a bit of a concern but Barber and Choice spelling him occasionally will only help him stay on the field for the long run. Maybe most importantly, it’s almost impossible for opposing defenses to stack the line with talents like Miles Austin, Jason Witten, rookie Dez Bryant, and even Roy Williams demanding attention. Maybe not a number 1 RB just yet, but a solid number 2 Felix Jones will finally be.

Ben Tate – RB (Texans) – Rookie Ben Tate out of Auburn has a ton of upside and will fit well in the Texan offense. The opportunity is there for the taking due to Slaton’s off-season neck surgery and the straight fact that Slaton has serious fumbling issues. If Tate doesn’t start off the season with the starting job, look for him to certainly finish the season with it. Tate is going to reap the benefits of a strong Houston passing game and not see as much guys in the box as a typical running back. Expect Tate to get a majority of the carries with Slaton being put in for passing down situations. His running style fits the offense of the Texans and is certainly the force the Texans were looking for when they moved up to draft him.

Jahvid Best – RB (Lions) – Best will be entering the season as the Lions number 1 back with Kevin Smith out and rehabbing his surgically repaired ACL. With no timetable set for Kevin Smith’s return, Best might be the best and only option for the Lions at the start of the season. Jahvid ran for 2668 yards and added 62 receptions to go along with his 35 TD's at Cal and is looking to carry that into the NFL. . Best has great speed and may be the best open field runner coming out of this season’s draft class. If there is any player that could turn nothing in to something it’s going to be Best. With all that speed he is going to be a force for the Lions young and improving offense. Drafting Best does come with some risk, though, as he is on a bad Lions team who may find themselves playing catch up in the second half of most games and look more toward the big play capability of Calvin Johnson.

Ryan Matthews – RB (Chargers) – Matthews is a running back that doesn’t have blazing speed, but is a back that doesn’t waste time in the backfield. He’ll find those holes and make the cut he needs to in order to reach the second level. He’s the type of back willing to bang heads with linebackers and rack up yards after contact. He, of all rookie running backs, has found himself in the best situation to be successful and successful right away. Although he has big shoes to fill in the hearts of Charger fans, he will make those Charger fans forget the man behind the visor. If you want Matthews on your roster, you’re going to have to take him high, and he might be worth it in the long run and in keeper leagues.

Dez Bryant – WR (Cowboys) – Here is a rookie that could have a significant impact on your fantasy team right away. Dez Bryant was the best WR coming out of this year’s draft and would have gotten drafted higher then 24^th if he wasn’t suspended for the entire 2009 regular season for his controversial interactions with Deion Sanders. Wade Phillips can’t stop raving about this guy. Dallas moved up in the draft to get him and let him wear number 88 (Irvin’s old number). Let me be frank, all Dez has to do is show up to training camp and he’ll beat out Roy Williams, regardless of what Jerry Rice has to say about it. Bryant has all the physical tools (6-2, 225lb) and speed to be extremely effective in this explosive Dallas offense. There are a lot of balls to be shared around with Austin, Witten, and Roy Williams ready to go, but that can only benefit Bryant with single coverage through the majority of the game. After not playing football for a whole year, Dez Bryant is a guy who even with a full training camp (which he will, having already signed), may start on the inconsistent side, but ultimately end the season on fire. It’s not often that a WR with Bryant’s talent is teamed up with a Pro Bowl QB like Romo in his prime, so I’d take advantage of it. He has the potential to be a low end number 2 WR this year.

Michael Crabtree – WR (49ers) – I, for one, thought Crabtree would look lost making his debut in week 7 against the Houston Texans due to the great deal of time he missed in training camp from a foot injury and elongated contract negotiations. Surprisingly, Crabtree stepped on the field and looked like the best WR on their roster, which isn’t saying much I know, but still impressive for a rookie. There are a couple of reasons to love his potential for this upcoming season. For once, the 49ers finally have some continuity on their coaching staff, most importantly on the offensive side of the ball with coordinator Jimmy Raye. Alex Smith finally showed some promise developing great chemistry with Crabtree. With both players getting the opportunity to start at their positions week 1, Crabtree’s numbers almost have to improve. His 2 touchdowns last year can easily triple to 6 this year with potential for more. Also, opposing defenses may put most of their focus on fantasy studs like Vernon Davis and Frank Gore, which could, at times, leave Crabtree with many weak coverages in the secondary.

Devin Thomas – WR (Redskins) – I usually wouldn’t touch any Redskins with a 10 ft pole, but a player like Devin Thomas intrigues me this year. With the acquisition of Donovan McNabb, almost every receivers’ numbers in Washington should improve, especially the speedsters. A west coast offense and the leadership of the one and only Mike Shanahan will help develop Thomas into a solid wideout. Over the past two years, McNabb had great success throwing the deep ball to WR DeSean Jackson, which eventually turned Jackson into a #1 receiver and one of the most feared big play threats at wideout. Devin Thomas is tall and has a lot of speed. He showed he’s capable of having huge games (7catches, 100yds, 2tds ), but just not consistently. In his third year, Thomas will start alongside Moss and will also get his fair share of deep balls. McNabb will definitely not hold onto the ball nearly as much as Campbell, and will take chances Campbell didn’t bother to take. Thomas has potential to be a great number 3WR.

Jeremy Maclin – WR (Eagles) – Maclin is the number 2 WR in Philly and has blazing 4.3 speed. He managed to accumulate over 700 yards receiving and 4 TD’s on limited playing time. Look for him to put up better numbers this year on an even more pass-friendly Philly team. Maclin won’t see any double teams playing opposite DeSean Jackson while at the same time having an elite tight end in Celek to occupy the middle. The Eagles are certainly going to air the ball out this season and show defenses how hard it is to cover 2 speed burners on the outside. If Maclin can improve his route-running abilities, the sky is the only limit. Look for Jeremy between rounds 8-11 in your fantasy draft.

Legedu Naanee – WR (Chargers) – Everyone’s favorite name at wide receiver will start becoming a household name at that. Legedu will be the primary benefactor of Vincent Jackson’s suspension and is on a contract year in 2010. If Naanee can show his true potential while Jackson is out, the Chargers will have no choice but to keep him in the starting lineup. The Chargers have arguably the best offense in the league year in and year out and have become a pass first team with the Tomlinson days in the rearview mirror. Once again, the presence of a superstar tight end does nothing but help create space for Naanee and the rest of the Chargers receiving core. Naanee will surprise, you can count on it.

Jermichael Finley – TE (Packers) – With a rare combination of size and speed, Finley has all the intangibles and athleticism to become an elite tight end in the NFL. In ’09, he was only 16^th out of all tight ends in targets. The starting job wasn’t his at the start of the season and he missed three games with a knee injury. With the starting role certainly his at the start of the season, his targets are sure to go up with a pass happy offense and a stud quarterback in Green Bay. It’s hard not to draw comparisons to Antonio Gates, as Finley’s size will overpower defensive backs and speed will have linebackers lost. Look for Finley to become a top-5 TE in 2010, guaranteed.

Brent Celek – TE (Eagles) – Celek made a name for himself in his rookie year posting numbers just shy of 1000 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns, but look for his production to improve even more. With speed on the outside as we mentioned with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, look for the middle of the field to be Celek’s domain. He may also find himself as the check down option for Kevin Kolb if the deep pass isn’t available. Look for Brent to be the fifth tight end taken off the board in either the 6^th or 7^th round.

Find a way to get some of these players on your team. Also focus on getting these guys at great value instead of trying to take them way too early to impress the rest of your league. Value means everything on draft day.